Did Ascend Wellness beat earnings in Q4 2025?

Ascend Wellness reported preliminary Q4 2025 revenue of ~$120M, below consensus estimates of ~$128.6M (-6.7% miss). Adjusted EBITDA of ~$30M delivered a 25% margin, showing continued profitability improvement.

What is the GTI arbitration against Ascend Wellness?

On February 5, 2026, Ascend Wellness was notified of an arbitration award in favor of Green Thumb Industries totaling ~$19.7M net, related to a 2018 side letter. The company says it has sufficient liquidity to cover this and will remain in compliance with loan covenants.

How many stores does Ascend Wellness operate?

Ascend Wellness expanded to 47 retail locations by end of Q4 2025, up from 46 in Q3 2025. The company maintains a pipeline of 13 additional stores targeting 60 locations within 12 months.

Ascend Wellness Holdings (AAWH)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Ascend Wellness Q4 2025: Margin Expansion Continues Despite Revenue Decline

February 9, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

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Ascend Wellness Holdings (AAWH) reported preliminary Q4 2025 results showing continued revenue pressure but meaningful margin expansion. The multi-state cannabis operator posted revenue of approximately $120 million and Adjusted EBITDA of ~$30 million, representing a 25% margin—up from 6.3% in Q3 2024 and sustaining the profitability gains achieved in recent quarters.

The announcement comes days after the company disclosed an unfavorable arbitration award of ~$19.7 million net to Green Thumb Industries, adding a material liability to the balance sheet.

Did Ascend Wellness Beat Earnings?

Revenue: The preliminary ~$120 million revenue came in below consensus estimates of ~$128.6 million, representing a -6.7% miss. This also marks a 12% decline year-over-year from Q4 2024's $136 million.

Adjusted EBITDA: At ~$30 million with a 25% margin, EBITDA performance shows the company's cost discipline is paying off. For context, Q3 2024 delivered just $25.1 million in Adjusted EBITDA at a 17.7% margin.*

Metric	Q4 2025 (Prelim)	Q3 2025	Q4 2024	YoY Change
Revenue	~$120M	$124.7M	$136.0M*	-12%
Adj. EBITDA	~$30M	$31.1M	$25.1M*	+20%
Adj. EBITDA Margin	~25%	24.9%	17.7%*	+730 bps

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

The margin story is the bright spot. Management has shifted the business toward a "customer-focused, CPG operating model" with a record number of SKUs and improved product mix driving market share gains.

What Did Management Say?

CEO Sam Brill emphasized the strategic pivot:

"Through our densification strategy, we expanded our retail footprint to 47 stores and deliberately reoriented the business toward a customer-focused, CPG operating model. This shift supported a record number of SKUs and a broader product and brand portfolio, driving market share gains across our core markets."

On the balance sheet and outlook:

"We have entered 2026 in a position of strength, with no significant debt maturities until 2029, and a highly selective, disciplined approach to advancing our expansion pipeline and M&A initiatives."

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GTI Arbitration: A ~$20M Headwind

On February 5, 2026, Ascend was notified of an arbitration award stemming from a 2018 side letter with Green Thumb Industries. The arbitrator found both parties breached certain obligations:

GTI awarded: ~$22 million
AAWH awarded: ~$2.3 million
Net liability to AAWH: ~$19.7 million

The company "disagrees with the unanticipated decision" and is evaluating options. Management emphasized this will not cause material disruption to operations, citing sufficient liquidity and covenant compliance even if required to pay in full.

Full Year 2025 Summary

Metric	FY 2025 (Prelim)	Context
Revenue	~$500M	Down from ~$562M in FY 2024*
Adj. EBITDA	~$117M	23% margin
Cash	$86M	Down from $87.3M in Q3 2025
Retail Locations	47	Target: 60 within 12 months

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

How Did the Stock React?

AAWH shares are trading at approximately $0.66, near the 50-day moving average of $0.67. The stock is up significantly from its 52-week low of $0.26 but remains well below the 52-week high of $1.20.

Price Metric	Value
Current Price	$0.66
Market Cap	~$134M
52-Week High	$1.20
52-Week Low	$0.26
50-Day Avg	$0.67

The stock saw a notable +16% move on February 4, 2026, prior to the preliminary results announcement.

What Changed From Last Quarter?

Positive:

Adjusted EBITDA margin held at ~25%, consistent with Q3's 24.9%
Retail footprint expanded to 47 stores (from 46)
Balance sheet remains solid with $86M cash and no debt maturities until 2029

Negative:

Revenue declined sequentially to ~$120M from $124.7M
GTI arbitration adds ~$19.7M potential liability
Year-over-year revenue continues to compress (-12%)

Revenue Trend (8 Quarters)

Period	Revenue	QoQ Change	Adj. EBITDA Margin
Q1 2024	$142.4M	—	8.2%*
Q2 2024	$141.5M	-0.6%	4.9%*
Q3 2024	$141.6M	+0.1%	17.7%*
Q4 2024	$136.0M*	-4.0%	12.0%*
Q1 2025	$128.0M	-5.9%	10.3%*
Q2 2025	$127.3M	-0.5%	7.5%*
Q3 2025	$124.7M	-2.0%	24.9%
Q4 2025	~$120M	-3.8%	~25%

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

Revenue has declined for 5 consecutive quarters, but the Adjusted EBITDA margin story has inflected positively since Q3 2024.

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Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Metric	Q4 2025	Q3 2025
Cash & Equivalents	$86M	$87.3M
Total Debt	~$617M*	$617.1M*
Net Debt	~$531M	$281.8M
Next Debt Maturity	2029	—

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

The clean debt maturity profile through 2029 provides runway for the company to navigate cannabis industry headwinds without refinancing pressure.

Forward Catalysts

Q4 & FY 2025 Earnings Call: March 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
Retail Expansion: Pipeline of 13 stores targeting 60 total locations
GTI Arbitration Resolution: Company evaluating options on ~$19.7M award
New Jersey Partner Dispensary: Little Falls location approved

Key Risks

Continued Revenue Decline: 5 consecutive quarters of sequential declines
Price Compression: Cannabis industry-wide pricing pressure continues
Arbitration Liability: ~$19.7M potential cash outflow if settled in full
Regulatory Uncertainty: Cannabis remains federally illegal, limiting capital access

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Conference Call Details

Ascend Wellness will hold its Q4 & FY 2025 earnings conference call on Thursday, March 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.

Dial-in: 1-888-699-1199
Webcast: AWH Investor Relations
Replay: 1-888-660-6345 (Code: 66620#) until March 19, 2026

This analysis is based on preliminary, unaudited financial results. Final audited results may differ materially. These are preliminary figures and actual results will be filed with the SEC and Canadian securities regulators.